This has been one of the hardest weeks to forecast for New England so far this Fall. It all started with the cold front that moved through on Tuesday. This brought some much needed rain to the region, but it also helped to move the High Pressure that was over the Region out to sea.
This allowed for an area of Low Pressure to make its way south from the Great Lakes, however it cut-off from the stream and has stayed spinning over the Ohio River Valley for the past week. This was caused due to strong closed circulation at the surface and a blocking High that set up over Northeast New England.
This has caused us to be stuck in this cool, grey pattern that we have seen over the past week. Based on recent research into Weather Patterns seen in the Northeast during the Fall season, this would e considered Weather Type 3, as seen below.
This pattern is defined by an offshore high pressure system along with a Low Pressure system over the Great Lakes. This pattern typically persists anywhere between 1-3 days, but there have been cases of it lasting as long as 6 days. This would occur when such blocking as we have seen this week sets up. This allows the East Coast to see abundant rainfall due to the Southwest flow of moisture into the region at low-levels. However, as we have had a blocking High to the North, we in New England have seen more of a North/Northeast flow into the region. This has caused us to see average to below average temperatures and little rainfall as cool, dry air has been constantly fed into the region. As the Low begins to lift North back into the stream over the next couple of days, this is when we will see the rain come into the region as the High begins to lift out as well.
This will bring us rain showers beginning in the evening Friday and heavier rain moves in overnight and lasts through the late Saturday morning before turning back to showers by the afternoon. This should bring some much needed rain to the region as Northern parts of MA see around .35-.60″ and areas in the Southern half see around 1″+ of rain. Rain showers look to stick around on and off throughout the day Sunday and Monday. These look to be lighter in nature meaning that the days will not be complete washouts. Temperatures also look to increase as the High Pressure moves out and a more Southerly Flow takes over meaning Sunday and Monday will see Highs back in the mid 60s.
Sunshine looks to return for a bit next week but we have to watch out for Hurricane Matthew as it begins to trek northwards next week.